ljg-invest

ljg-invest: Investment Report

Given a project, write an investment analysis. The entire report answers one question: is this thing creating new order, or just rearranging old order?

Foundation

One definition underpins the whole report: wealth is not money, but order illuminated by desire; money is just the unit of measurement for order. Investment means trading the order you hold for a better order generator.

From this definition, the report's questions differ from market conventions:

Conventional Question	This Report Asks
How much is this company worth?	Can this machine spin?
How big is the market?	What outdated label is the market using to see it?
How much will it grow?	What am I trading for what, and who ends up smarter?

Input

Company name, pitch deck, text description, conversation records—any material describing the project. For well-known companies, just the name is enough—use Research skill or subagent to fetch latest financials and industry data; don't write from outdated memory.

Report Structure

Five sections form the skeleton, not a fill-in-the-blank form. Write more on sections with substance; skim or skip sections with little content. The report serves judgment; completeness for its own sake is pointless.

1. What Is This

A table plus a self-defined sector description.

Dimension	Content
Project Name
Sector Definition	In our own words, not market labels
Stage
Funding	Amount / Valuation / Terms (fill if available, otherwise note)
Data Snapshot	Key operational metrics

Sector definition should capture what the company really does—beyond market labels. Calling it a 'search engine company' says nothing; calling it 'the monopoly operator of human cognitive infrastructure' reveals how it makes money and what threatens it.

2. Order Creation Machine Assessment

The weight of the entire report rests on this section. No scoring by items; answer one question: Can this machine spin? Look from three angles.

Is the flywheel spinning?
First find the virtuous cycle that gets better with use: more users → more data → better product → more users. Once found, see how far it has progressed—stopped, just started, already spinning; if spinning, how long and whether accelerating or plateauing; if stopped, identify the bottleneck.

Does it get stronger or weaker after shocks?
When competition strikes, technology shifts, or market collapses, does this machine break, withstand, or absorb the shock as fuel? Check its history: has it been hit before, and did it emerge weaker or stronger?

Are resources pushed or pulled?
If expansion relies on one-by-one deals or piecemeal acquisitions, that's push; if others flock in voluntarily or fear missing out, that's gravity. Look for signs of 'gathering without pushing'.

Overall judgment, pick one of three:

• Order creation machine—flywheel spinning, stronger after shocks, resources come naturally
• Potential—flywheel structure exists but not yet validated
• Order rearrangement—rearranges existing elements without generating new order

3. Genesis Formula

Every order creation machine has a core algorithm, expressed in one sentence. Examples:

• Amazon = Profit → Reinvest → Lower cost → Lower prices → More users → More profit
• Tesla = Hardware collects data → Data trains algorithms → Algorithms redefine hardware
• Google = When each shift in how humans find answers occurs, become the default infrastructure for the new method

After writing, ask two follow-ups: how many times has this formula been validated and to what extent; is anyone else running a similar formula, and what's the difference?

4. What the Market Sees vs. What We See

Investment timing is determined here.

Where is it on the S-curve?
Accumulation, inflection, acceleration, plateau—which phase? If before inflection, specify what conditions will trigger it.

What old eyes is the market using?
What label has the market stuck on it, what does that label obscure, and what does our framework see that others miss? How big is this perception gap—excess returns come from here. Signs of cognitive discount: it takes great effort to explain so others understand; pricing is persistently anomalous, parts don't sum to whole; existing analogies all fail, it's like X but not X.

What does it control that others can't take?
Does it hold data, distribution, standards, or network effects? Is this control static (brand, patents) or self-reinforcing? Look ahead: will this scarcity shift, and can the project keep up?

Which wave is it riding?
Three costs are collapsing: understanding cost, coordination cost, action cost. Which one is this project riding, and how much of the released energy has it captured?

5. Trade or Not

• Exchange recommendation: Invest / Observe / Pass
• If invest: Suggested amount range, key terms
• Core assumptions: Which assumptions is this decision betting on? For each, attach an exit signal—what data would indicate the assumption is wrong and it's time to leave.
• Open questions: 3-5 questions critical to the decision that remain unanswered, ranked by importance.

Final Sentence

One sentence answering: what is the essence of this project—creating new order, or rearranging old order?

Output

• Format: org-mode
• Directory: ~/Documents/notes/
• Naming per denote: YYYYMMDDTHHMMSS==z--投资分析-PROJECT_NAME.org, e.g., 20260326153000==z--投资分析-example-ai.org
• Use Write tool to save, then report the full path to the user

Generation Rules

1. Use only real information. If something cannot be found, explicitly note it; do not fabricate or force.
2. Dare to make judgments. No phrases like 'could be good or bad'.
3. Every judgment must be backed by evidence: data, citations, specific facts.
4. Forbidden words: huge market, excellent team, bright prospects, blue ocean.
5. Length should be sufficient to explain thoroughly. 2000 words if enough, 7000 if needed.
6. Write in Chinese.